For this market, “Making America Great Again” is defined by Gallup Polling of the question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" American's satisfaction under Trump will be compared to American's previous satisfaction under Obama, which was lower than the peaks of Trump's first term.
If satisfaction is once again higher under Trump as President before the 2026 midterms, then Trump has "made America great again" again for the purpose of this market.
Previous peaks:
36% under Obama in 2009, declined to 17% in 2016.
38% under Trump in 2018, then another peak of 45% in 2020 before the pandemic and a decline to 11%. A version of this market would have resolved YES in 2018.
36% under Biden in 2021, currently 19% in 2024. A version of this market would have resolved NO in 2022.
If Trump isn't elected President, this market resolves N/A and all trades will be canceled. If he is elected, this market resolves YES if American satisfaction reaches 37% before the midterms or NO if it does not.
Related:
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3.00Here's the Gallup graph, for reference:
The peaks under Biden and Obama were in the first years of their presidencies, but I think it's more important to note that they came at moments when the American economy was coming out of a crisis.
However, Trump's peak didn't come after any particular crisis, the economy had been doing well under Obama in 2016 and continued to improve under Trump in 2017 and 2018.
Therefore, one might expect that the same thing might happen again if Trump is elected and the economy continues to improve as it has in 2024.