Will India launch astronauts into orbit before the end of December 31, 2026?
Will India launch astronauts into orbit before the end of December 31, 2026?
Basic
3
Ṁ402026
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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India plans to launch astronauts through the Gaganyaan program, with a first launch currently planned for the first half of 2026.
The question resolves yes if at any point before the end of 2026 one or more Indian astronauts complete a full orbit around the Earth on an Indian built rocket launched from Indian territory.
It resolves no if this does not happen by the end of 2026.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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