Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?
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Similar to https://kalshi.com/events/MOON-25/markets/MOON-25, but for landings before January 1st 2026 rather than 2025
Apr 9, 9:37am: Will NASA land a person on the moon by 2026? → Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?
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<2025:
Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024NO
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025?NO
<2026:
Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?3%
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?2%
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?2%
Later:
Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?5%
Will a human land on the moon by 2028?15%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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