Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2025, either:

1. A U.S. court (including the Supreme Court) issues a ruling that significantly limits President Trump's authority to impose or negotiate tariffs, OR

2. Congress passes legislation that significantly limits the President's tariff powers, and this legislation either becomes law or overrides a presidential veto.

"Significantly limits" means the action substantively restricts the President's ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, beyond minor procedural hurdles. This could include striking down specific tariff orders, invalidating the legal basis for certain tariffs, or creating new statutory constraints on presidential tariff authority.

Background

President Trump has indicated plans to use tariffs extensively in his second term, including potentially invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify broad tariff actions. In April 2025, Trump announced a 10% global tariff and an additional 11% tariff on Chinese imports.

The Constitution gives Congress primary authority over trade, but various laws passed over decades have delegated significant tariff powers to the executive branch. The President can impose tariffs under several statutory authorities, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act (national security), Section 301 of the Trade Act (unfair trade practices), and the IEEPA (national emergencies).

Considerations

Courts have historically been reluctant to overturn presidential actions on trade and national security. However, the Supreme Court's "major questions doctrine" could potentially be applied to limit executive authority on tariffs that have significant economic impact without clear congressional authorization.

For Congress to successfully limit presidential tariff authority would likely require a veto-proof majority (two-thirds in both chambers), as the President would likely veto any legislation restricting his trade powers.

• Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Conditions for Court-Ordered Limitations:

  • Duration Requirement: The limitation must be in effect for more than one week.

  • Effective Tariff Impact: The ruling must result in a change to the actual effective tariff rates, rather than being a temporary measure pending further judicial review.