In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI, | Manifold

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Basic

6

Ṁ125

2030

62%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predictedNO

What about a company focused on an LLM when it was founded, grows quickly, but has branched out to a bunch of other stuff by the time it's worth $5bn? (Follow-ups: What if the LLM part of the company is valued at more than $5bn on its own? What if an LLM company gets bought by Oracle for $4.9bn but then clearly grows to be worth more?)

I bet if you give me between an hour and 6 months I will be able to bring you 5. Another good question would be if there are 10 between now and 2030, will there still be 10 in 2030?

Related questions

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Will OpenAI consume more than $250M of Microsoft compute in 2025?

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

-32% 1d40% chance

Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Related questions

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will OpenAI consume more than $250M of Microsoft compute in 2025?

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules