What percent of Project 2025 will be accomplished by the end of Trump's term?

Plus

Ṁ2978

2029

1.1%

<35%

1.7%

[35%, 40%)

[40%, 45%)

[45%, 50%)

[50%, 55%)

[55%, 60%)

[60%, 65%)

[65%, 70%)

[70%, 75%)

[75%, 80%)

[80%, 85%)

[85%, 90%)

[90%, 95%)

≥95%

I found a website tracking and quantifying how far Project 2025 seems to be progressing. https://www.project2025.observer/

This market resolves to the overall progress percent as reported on the website when Trump is no longer POTUS for his 2nd term or when 11:59am EST Jan 20, 2029 occurs, whichever happens first. Official government sources will be used.

If the website is no longer online when this market closes, then it will resolve to the latest snapshot from the Internet Archive that was taken while Trump was POTUS during this market's closing closing criteria.

https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://www.project2025.observer/

This market will not entertain arguments about temporary discontinuity of the Presidency due to the 25th Ammendment -- that won't count to close this market if Trump is still POTUS.

Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Interpretation of POTUS Status:
- In circumstances akin to the scenario from 3:00 to 3:47 in the CGP Grey video, Trump will be considered still POTUS, even if he is not serving as an Acting President.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

5 Comments

4 Holders

10 Trades

Sort by:

I think my last paragraph's wording may have inadvertently allowed for the awkward situation that starts being described from 3:00 to 3:47 in CGP Grey's video here. If this occurs, I believe we have to interpret that Trump is still POTUS under those circumstances, even if he's not the "Acting President".

https://youtu.be/boezS4C_MFc?si=I_hs0rGanv0aaqJZ&t=180

(comment edited to have link start video at 3:00)

For arbitrage, there is a similar question with less granular options: https://manifold.markets/Marnix/what-will-the-project-2025-tracker-SPE8Ohd9Nc

At time of post, it is 35%.

@Quroe A useful chart for people who want to see progress over time to imply best fit lines:

View the overall completions chart for Project 2025 objectives https://www.project2025.observer/visualize/charts#overall-completions

I have no relation to the people running the tracking website. I'll say that it's fair for me to trade on this market after a week has passed or 10 unique traders have traded. Whichever happens first.

Related questions

Related questions