Resolves as YES if a fusion reactor has been built in (or relocated to) China and has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Different countries:

Will the USA acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?35%‌

Will China acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?33%‌ (this question)
Will the UK acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?23%‌

Will Nauru acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?17%‌

Fusion reactor questions:

Will we get fusion reactors before 2025?1%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?4%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2027?6%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?16%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?20%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?20%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?34%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?36%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?42%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?50%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?53%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?55%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?62%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?65%‌

Numeric market:

What year do we get fusion reactors?‌

For the purpose of this question, China includes all its land and sea territory. A fusion reactor counts if it's controlled by the Chinese State, a local or foreign enterprise, or a foreign nation (but not a foreign nation's military). However, any construction, use, or ownership change must be freely approved by China. Reactors built or used without the permission of China, or by foreign military, do not qualify in the context of this question.

"China's land and sea territory" includes all of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Tibet. Taiwan and contested territories in the South China Sea are not considered to be parts of China.

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven