Will Germany give a Taurus missile to Ukraine before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country?
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19
Ṁ810
2031
74%
chance

If Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as YES.

If a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country before Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as NO.

If neither of these two events occur before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as N/A. The events in question must occur after May 1st 2024.

A target in the context of this question includes (but is not limited to): military or civilian personnel, vehicles, infrastructure.

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Giving a missile is not particularly instantaneous; will this resolve using the time when the offer was signed (and what if that's unknown), when the missile crossed the border (unlikely to be known either) or what?

Asking this because it's particularly likely that a target in a NATO country is hit because of Taurus shipment.

@AnT "Asking this because it's particularly likely that a target in a NATO country is hit because of Taurus shipment." -- this is bullshit

@MalachiteEagle you're very welcome to bet against, on I don't know which market.

What about a strike on NATO the Russians claim was intended for Ukraine, but strayed too far west?

bought Ṁ30 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen seems that counts

In the few days following Scholz's phone call to Putin, Russia has responded with a massive missile barrage targeted at Ukrainian civilians, and by cutting an undersea cable between Germany and Finland.

Are you people really betting it it is more likely to see a Russian missile attack on a NATO country than Germany providing Taurus to Ukraine? Maybe the Taurus will not be given, but Russian attack on NATO should be much less likely, no?

@JuhoPennanen the fewer weapons Germany gives to Ukraine the greater the likelihood of an attack on a NATO country.

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