Resolves as YES if a fusion drive (also known as a fusion rocket) has operated continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st, 2046, demonstrating practical and reliable functionality in space.

A fusion drive, for the purposes of this market, is defined as a propulsion system using nuclear fusion as its primary power source, capable of generating thrust in space applications. The drive must be used on a spacecraft with a minimum total mass (including the drive itself) of 10,000 kg. Additionally, the fusion drive must deliver a minimum average thrust of 1,000 newtons over the 24-hour period. The fusion reactor on the drive must operate at an energy gain factor (Q_E) of at least 1.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?11%‌

Will we get fusion drives before 2041?17%‌

Will we get fusion drives before 2042?29%‌

Will we get fusion drives before 2043?34%‌

Will we get fusion drives before 2044?39%‌

Will we get fusion drives before 2045?43%‌

Will we get fusion drives before 2046?45%‌ (this question)

Will we get fusion drives before 2047?54%‌

Related questions:

Will we get fusion reactors before 2025?1%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?4%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2027?6%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?17%‌
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?20%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?20%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?34%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?36%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?42%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?50%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?53%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?55%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?62%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?64%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?71%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?70%‌

Related numeric markets:

What year do we get fusion reactors?‌

For further context on fusion drives, refer to: Fusion Rocket - Wikipedia