Given https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener and how AI capabilities would need to evolve to be able to create a full movie what training materials and methodologies will be required vs what might be available online.
A director is the closest analogy in human terms I could come up with to an AI pumping out a whole movie, so if we restrict our pool of human directors to people initially trained on the same information an AI might have then there is a reasonable comparison group to consider capability gain.
Do you think that a director who wins an Oscar between now and 2028 will publicly acknowledge having gotten started using an online course on directing?
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3.00I appreciate the intent behind this market, but AFAIK the Oscars are ~50% about who you know and hang out with in Hollywood, and ~50% actual quality. That makes it extra hard.
@VitorBosshard I agree that that complicates matters in some ways, but as a black box evaluator of movie quality I think the Oscar stands as a reasonable bar for resolution, even if it's a very high reasonable bar.
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What is this?
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