Will resolve YES if there is a credible (as judged by me) report that a movie for which an Oscar has been awarded has a dialogue line that was written by an AI model rather than human writers.
Will resolve NO if no such report emerges.
I will not bet in this market.
Hollywood is going to remain way too biased against AI for the next 4 years for this to happen in that time frame. Every union hates it, the elder academy members are all boomers, and the pro-AI people would be smart enough to not try to use the Oscars as an early front for AI publicity. And it has to WIN? Way overvalued.
@JakobBrunker Thanks! I can imagine two plausible scenarios, and one implausible one:
1. A movie has a highly memorable quote, or line, or passage of dialogue. The screenwriter publicly credits (partially?) an AI with either the inspiration/idea/concept or the specific phrasing used. E.g. An AI suggesting that the differences between McDonalds in Europe & the US as a good topic of conversation for two assassins en-route to a hit.
2. A screenwriter admits to extensive (?) general use of AI in the development of a script, with the AI playing the role of a co-writer or collaborator. Perhaps they just mention that an AI is an important part of their workflow without referencing a specific film.
3. For some reason, the producers of a film delegate the task of writing dialogue to an AI (e.g., in the event the original screenwriter dies with the script unfinished). The AI-written dialogue appears in the movie, unedited or lightly edited. Perhaps the AI is credited as a screenwriter.
How would you resolve for these cases? I'd say (2) is already happening to some extent, so it's a question of degree.
@lcar
1. At least one full sentence has to be written by AI without modification, and the evidence we have must mention that (though a report saying e.g. "This line was written by ChatGPT" would be sufficient evidence). The AI suggesting a topic is not sufficient.
2. The specific film has to be mentioned.
3. Almost certainly would resolve YES, unless we have some reason to believe that every single sentence was edited.
@PatrikCihal To be clear that would only qualify for this market if the lines uttered in that scene are really written by an AI model, rather than put in the ChatGPT-type thing's mouth by the writers
Edit: Ah on re-reading your comment it sounds like that's what you mean, though