Will Libya officially split into two or more countries by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will Libya officially split into two or more countries by the end of 2030?

Basic

7

Ṁ446

2031

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If there are two countries, which both have UN membership in the current borders of Libya, this will resolve yes, otherwise no.

Exceptions, if another country that exists prior to the 5th September 2023 claims some territory within Libya, this will not count as splitting into two countries

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predictedNO

There is a very strong norm in Africa against border changes. There were three cases since the end of colonialism - Namibia, Eritrea and South Sudan - and each of those had a very clear exceptional situation justifying it. Somalia has de facto been at least two or three separate countries (Mogadishuland, Puntland and Somaliland) since the fall of the Siad Barre regime and there is no talk whatsoever of recognizing that.

@BrunoParga aaaand Ethiopia just recognized Somaliland. They signed a memorandum of understanding, which is a treaty, which entails recognition.

Related questions

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

-6% 1d41% chance

Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?

Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?

Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?

Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2100?

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?

Will Libya hold national elections by 2025

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?

Will 2 or more new countries adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

Related questions

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?

Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?

Will Libya hold national elections by 2025

Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?

Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?

Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2100?

Will 2 or more new countries adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules