Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
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22
Ṁ13652043
58%
chance
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1M
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This market is a mirror of the long bet between Samo Burja and @ScottAlexander and will resolve according to the terms of that bet, as given on the Long Bets site: https://longbets.org/933/
Full question: "By 2043 there will be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC."
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Looking like 'maybe.'
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy35mx/a-prehistoric-pyramid-may-have-just-rewritten-human-history-scientists-claim
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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