Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC? | Manifold

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

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57

Ṁ11k

2040

31%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 20%.

There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).

Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Hmm, I'll bet sea levels have risen a bit since then.

predictedYES

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/arp.1912

Just a moment...

bought Ṁ2 YES

@BrianCaulfield Looking under the proverbial couch cushions right now.

bought Ṁ50 YES at 33%

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy35mx/a-prehistoric-pyramid-may-have-just-rewritten-human-history-scientists-claim

A Prehistoric Pyramid May Have Just Rewritten Human History, Scientists Claim

The pyramid of Gunung Padang in Indonesia began construction in the deep past, a new study claims, and was built by an unknown ancient people.

2 traders bought Ṁ119 YES

How hard are we looking?

this question made it into long now https://longbets.org/933/ (also kinda arb with /SG/major-archaeological-discovery-riva)

showcasing this market because it's uncertain, original, and relevant to our understanding of tech progress

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Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?

Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Buckingham Palace, from before 11,000 BC?

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Will the remains of a full-scale city dating to before 12,000 years ago be found by the end of 2030?

Will any other research team find obelisks before 2030?

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