Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities? | Manifold

Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities?

Basic

5

Ṁ220

Jan 1

40%

Other

14%

No effective antivirals

45%

Oseltamivir

0.7%

Peramivir

0.8%

zanamivir

Resolves N/A if there are no confirmed human cases of human-to-human transmission by the end of 2023, or if no antivirals have been tested by the end of 2024. Antivirals used prophylactially will count.

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Does "exist" mean "approved for Influenza A" or "approved for any indication" or "in development for any indication"?

There needs to be both human cases and human to human transmission for this question to be activated. There have already been approximately 10 cases of H5N1 in humans in the last 15 months. Human to human transmission is a major evolutionary leap but certainly not out of the cards.

@BTE No one has bet yet so I will modify the description.

@SG aka Tamiflu

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