Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]

Basic

Ṁ2780

2030

99%

Demis Hassabis

99%

Daron Acemoglu

70%

Jun Ye

50%

Peter Zoller

46%

Gilles Brassard

45%

Robert S Langer

45%

Charles Henry Bennett

44%

Peter Shor

43%

Olga Botner

41%

Can Xue

41%

Krzysztof Matyjaszewski

41%

Elizaveta 'Monetochka' Gyrdymova

41%

Ed Boyden

38%

David Deutsch

36%

Chi-Huey Wong

35%

William Jorgesen

34%

Salman Rushdie

34%

Jean Fréchet

34%

Charles Leonard Bennett

29%

Charles L. Brooks III

Any laureate who wins a Nobel prize will resolve YES at the time of winning. The others will resolve NO by the market close. Only prizes received after 2023 (when this market opened) count.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@mods please resolve Yaghi and Kitagawa YES

@Shump please resolve Yaghi and Kitagawa YES

Yaghi and Kitagawa got the 2025 chemistry Nobel.

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2025/press-release/

Hope we soon get a search field for those type of market

Meant Jorgensen, but there is probably no homonimy risks

Am I allowed to submit answers after they are already true?

@Joshua No. I will clarify in the description

I mean prizes after this market is created, but where no one submitted them as an answer before it became true. But also as I type this, I realize this is no different from just making my own "Is 1+1 = 2" market so it is a silly question.

@Joshua Yes, that is allowed. There's no "other" option anyways so that can compensate for that

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