When will Trump and Elon “break up” / have a serious public falling out? | Manifold

When will Trump and Elon “break up” / have a serious public falling out?

Plus

168

Ṁ51k

Dec 31

1D

1W

1M

ALL

93%

2024-2025

3%

2026-2028

5%

later/never

I wonder when or if Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a serious, substantial, and prolonged public falling out. This means they engage in significant negative exchanges lasting over a couple of weeks, involving multiple substantial criticisms of each other on major issues—not just minor disagreements or single-issue disputes. Light-hearted remarks, minor critiques, or respectful criticism of some decisions while still maintaining their relationship don’t count. It has to be somewhat personal.

I won’t be betting on this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The criteria indicate need for a prolonged falling out, with significant negative exchanges over a couple of weeks.

@Chrisjohn don't think they're coming back from this

@Lorelai agreeee

@Lorelai I don’t think so either. But the criteria seems clear to wait and see for sure.

He just said trump is on epstein files

@Gugra it is getting worse by the minute

@Soli Are you still going to wait a couple weeks to resolve this?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yes

Today lol

🍿

@Soli Not enough to trigger a market resolution, though, right?

@Quroe not yet but very close

bought Ṁ5 YES

Excellent news coverage. Thanks!

When will Trump’s moobs have a serious public falling out?

The AI art is... intresting.

bought Ṁ70 YES

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/02/trump-musk-leaving-political-liability-00265784

Just a moment...

bought Ṁ50 YES

Taking 26-28 on a "lose mid terms blame game starts" theory of what causes the break up.

what is going on with the ai art

Probably pretty close to how they actually see each other as

Potential friction here, https://fortune.com/2024/12/27/trump-maga-base-clashes-with-elon-musk-broligarchs-h1b-visas/

bought Ṁ50 YES

honestly Elon could just run out DT’s biological clock here

@JesWolfe True, your question inspired this market: /Soli/will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser

Related questions

Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?

+41% 1d99% chance

What will happen in June as part of the Trump/Musk breakup?

Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump on X before July?

-35% 1d15% chance

Will Trump attack one of Elon Musk's companies in the next month?

+11% 1d61% chance

What words or phrases will Trump use to describe Elon Musk before the end of June 2025?

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

-20% 1d23% chance

Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out by EoY 2025?

+41% 1d99% chance

Trump gives Elon a nickname by end of July?

+27% 1d78% chance

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

+36% 1d83% chance

Musk and Tump will fall out by end of 2025

+65% 1d99% chance

Related questions

Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

What will happen in June as part of the Trump/Musk breakup?

Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out by EoY 2025?

Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump on X before July?

Trump gives Elon a nickname by end of July?

Will Trump attack one of Elon Musk's companies in the next month?

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

What words or phrases will Trump use to describe Elon Musk before the end of June 2025?

Musk and Tump will fall out by end of 2025

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules