What will happen to me in 2025? [Add Answers]
➕
Plus
56
Ṁ16k
Dec 31
50%
Having more than 10K streams on an AI song I created
50%
Either donating more to charity, or donating to a more cost effective charity, than last year
50%
Using LSD with someone who hasn't done it before
30%
Being mistaken for someone famous
39%
Crying at the cinema
26%
Getting a new nickname at my future job
50%
Breaking the screen of my smartphone
39%
Receiving a text message or call from someone who I haven't spoken in 3+ years
32%
Crashing in a 2nd bicycle accident
50%
Running an official running event
3%
Suing a contraceptive company because the contraceptive failed.
23%
Hospitalized (24H+)
28%
Starting a blog/substack/podcast
35%
Getting drinks with my first ex-girlfriend
6%
Deciding to get an abortion
23%
Getting shit on by a bird
53%
Finding money on the street
28%
Getting someone pregnant
57%
Trying 3 new recreational drugs
39%
Doing drugs with my mother

Follow up from last years edition (https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/what-will-happen-to-me-in-2024-add)

I will be 100% honest on all questions asked below to help you make the right bet.

  • Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria Clarification:

    • The outcome must involve having sex with a Tinder match.

    • The encounter occurs in a new city, indicating a partner that is not an ex.

  • Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cumulative Requirement:

    • The outcome must include having sex with three different people,

    • This must occur on three separate occasions throughout 2025.

  • Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Deciding to get an abortion':

    • This outcome requires the creator's partner to be pregnant and the decision to get an abortion to be mutual between the creator and their partner.

  • Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding newly added options:

    • To resolve YES, the event described by the option must occur:

    • In 2025.

    • After the specific option was added to the market.

  • Update 2025-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding outcomes involving 'reading a book':

    • Audiobooks do not count as 'reading'.

  • Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)':

    • A partner-based method of contraception, specifically an IUD, is a relevant event for this outcome's resolution.

  • Update 2025-07-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)':

    • The creator has confirmed this answer will be resolved to YES.

    • The resolution is based on the creator's partner getting an IUD, confirming partner-based methods are sufficient.

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@TheWabiSabi I'm testing SUNO and seeing what is possible.

My style: https://suno.com/s/Ji93ohZBRKJFgMto

@TheAllMemeingEye not a big donator to be honest, mostly give to GiveWell or Wikipedia. But if you have of good tip, let me know

@TheWabiSabi ah cool, I didn't know you already gave to Givewell :)

Copied from my comment here
https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th#s5tgxb0ludc

some more excellent starting points besides GiveWell ( https://www.givewell.org ) include:

bought Ṁ250 YES

@TheWabiSabi won a €50 coffee giftcard after a Strava challenge

Added 1000 mana in Liquidy

bought Ṁ208 YES

@TheWabiSabi just had my last session :) happy to see where I'm now.

@TheWabiSabi (immediately relapses) /s

bought Ṁ218 YES

@TheWabiSabi go a complement on my English pronunciation in Amsterdam after helping a stranger with the train from Ecuador.

@TheWabiSabi received another offer from a company as a project manager, but the offer is way to low for the work I need to be doing...

@MYSTERYMAN do all contraceptive methods count, including ones based on technique rather than equipment/medication (e.g. rhythm / periodic abstinence, pullout / coitus interruptus, non-PIV sex acts etc.), and including ones that primarily involve actions by the partner rather than him (e.g. IUD, implant, injection, tube-tying etc.)?

@TheAllMemeingEye my current sex partner just got a IUD so want to know how to resolve this.

@TheWabiSabi @MYSTERYMAN can you let me know, otherwise resolving yes in next couple of days

bought Ṁ217 YES

@TheWabiSabi Bucharest is a great place to have sex ;)

@TheWabiSabi next do it in Fucking in Austria to fulfil nominative determinism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fugging,_Upper_Austria

@TheAllMemeingEye interesting...

@MYSTERYMAN checking, you mean me using a contraceptive, or me or my partner?

@TheWabiSabi thinking about London in August

@TheWabiSabi I'm actuality trying to win a giveaway at this point :p

bought Ṁ168 YES

@100Anonymous took some time to resolve this one...

Lately, I’ve been wondering if I’m happy. Not the loud kind of happy, not the fireworks or the holiday kind. But something quieter. A soft, steady hum underneath the noise of daily life. And strangely, despite the chaos and the grief and the strange, sharp edges of the world, I think the answer might be yes.

Yes, I think I might be happy.

Not because everything is perfect. It isn’t. The world breaks in a thousand places every day. I’ve seen it break in others, and I’ve seen it break in me. But even then, when I wake up, I look forward to the day. I feel the sun on my face and the air in my lungs, and somewhere in that simplicity, I feel alive. I feel ready.

Maybe it’s because I’ve stopped waiting for peace to come after the storm. Maybe I’ve started finding it within the storm.

In the Buddhist sense, I’ve come to see that suffering is part of the deal; impermanence, craving, attachment. But also, there’s awareness. There’s breath. There’s letting go. And in that letting go, I’ve found something that feels a lot like freedom. A kind of happiness that doesn’t shout. It just is.

So yes. I think I might be happy.

Even with all of it. Especially with all of it. ❤️

@HocusPocus never sued anyone in my life (for context)

bought Ṁ189 YES

@TheWabiSabi just finished Siddhartha 3/3

@TheWabiSabi Think this should be lower, life is to expensive for weddings ;)

@TheWabiSabi not all weddings have to be expensive though

@TheAllMemeingEye true but less expensive weddings are usually smaller

@TheWabiSabi I'm now around 74.3

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