☃️What will happen in December 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

Basic

Ṁ3460

Jan 1

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

99%

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

99%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

99%

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

86%

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

84%

noam chomsky alive until end of month

81%

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

80%

NASDAQ hits an all time high

75%

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

68%

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

60%

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

58%

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

52%

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

47%

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

35%

trump leaves usa at least once

31%

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

31%

spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced

31%

another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

26%

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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3.00

11 Comments

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221 Trades

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bought Ṁ20 YES

@strutheo stats page graph gives 1310 dollars for Dec 1st

bought Ṁ7 YES

@strutheo USGS good enough?

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 99.0% order

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Two notable dormant volcano eruptions this year. https://aje.io/mf0pcu https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-pacific/2025/08/03/tsunami-waves-possible-and-dormant-volcano-erupts-after-earthquake-in-russias-far-east/

Edit: misread this as the "in 2025" market, disregard.

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 4% order

@strutheo Another one?

for nVidea -- the most logical approach would be to rename the question or resolve it as N/A for December as well.

@AlvaLindqvist The question is not about whether NVIDIA will break its own record.

@strutheo resolve no

bought Ṁ150 NO

@realDonaldTrump Mockery market of the wording of "Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month.

@strutheo Does it have to happen during this month, or if it happens before it will also resolve YES?

@Fedor has to happen in dec

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