Background: I have maintained a prediction calendar since 2010 and will be creating markets of the (least ridiculous) predictions in there. Most of these will not be my own predictions. I will not be betting in any of the markets I create.

This market will resolve as YES if elections are held in the Netherlands to choose representatives for the Dutch Parliament (Tweede Kamer) in March 2025. It will resolve as NO if no such elections are held in March 2025.

Background reasoning

This prediction was predicated on the conviction that the snap elections that will be held in November 2023 will lead to a difficult formation process, which will conclude in late spring 2024. Then, after summer, the newly formed government will quickly enter a crisis and collapse. This will prompt the March 2025 election. Note: For the resolution of this market, it is not important whether this scenario accurately describes actual events. It is only important whether or not general elections (Tweede Kamerverkiezingen) are held in March 2025.

For those with high need for operationalisation

While I think it is not ambiguous whether or not elections are held in a specific month, there will be people who fret over edge cases. Indeed, if a last-minute force majeure makes it impossible for people to come out to vote, this will count as no elections being held, even if all the prior organisation and campaigning was complete. Only if the Dutch 'Kiesraad' lists the outcome of the elections afterwards (e.g. on their website https://verkiezingsuitslagen.nl) and mainstream news organisations (e.g. NOS) will report on the actual voting as something that has happened, will it count.