Who will be the 52nd US President?
Who will be the 52nd US President?
Basic
4
Ṁ72068
87%
1.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Nobody
1.8%
Maxwell Frost
I will resolve it when it happens. Closing date arbitrarily far in the future.
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52nd president could be inaugurated anywhere from 2045 (all presidents serve one term, assumes no one dies in office) to 2069 (all presidents serve two terms, assumes no one dies in office). If we assume the average president is ~60-65, there's a decent chance the 52nd is someone no one has heard of yet. Non-zero (but low) chance they haven't been born yet.
How does this resolve if there is no 52nd president, e.g. because the U.S. dissolves or becomes a parliamentary republic? Would it resolve to "Nobody" or N/A?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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