I ask because the two main priorities that have been previously mentioned for Insurrection Act invocation (by the Trump team) have been border security and civil unrest. I specifically want to dial in on what will happen on the civil unrest side.

"military directed against protestors" is somewhat at my discretion here, but will generally be taken to mean US military present in an official capacity at a public gathering that has at least the ostensible purpose of protesting something.

"Trump's second term" means his legal term, until the term of the next president is supposed to start in January 2029. If Trump ceases to be president before that time and he has not yet invoked the Act, this question will resolve to "no" even if Vance or whoever succeeds Trump invokes the Act immediately upon gaining power.

• Update 2025-07-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified a key change in the resolution criteria:

  • If Trump does not invoke the Insurrection Act at all during his second term, this market will resolve to N/A.

  • The market will only resolve to NO if the Act has been invoked, but the military has not been directed against protestors.