Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028 | Manifold

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

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https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

48% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

If above market resolves between January 1st and March 31th of 2028, this market resolves YES, otherwise in resolves NO.

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https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023

Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023

"All otherwise undated predictions are about 1/1/2028."

I'm interested to hear a compelling argument for why the other nine months of 2028 are not in 2028.

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Related questions

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

In which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026

Will I (robm) agree with the resolution to the 2028 AI generated movie market?

Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI

will the "AI movie to a prompt" market stay above 65% for a week straight before the end of 2025?

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

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