Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025? | Manifold

Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?

Plus

34

Ṁ11k

2025

24%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

GPT-5 with scaffolding or access to tools counts as long as GPT-5 is making real decisions.

Resolves No if GPT-5 doesn’t score Bronze or higher, or if it does not does not exist by then, or nobody makes an IMO attempt by the end of August 2025

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Is it fine if it’s a math-specialized version of GPT-5 (involving math-specific post training consisting of, say, <5% of pretraining compute)?

Yeah that sounds reasonable

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