i've been out of the chess world for a bit - why is Hikaru at 75%?

@dlin007 Looks like it was mostly one trader.
That said, if Hikaru wants the rating spot, and is willing to get to 40 games this year, it's probably his. This assumes that Magnus doesn't take that slot.

It's path E at (https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/FIDE_Candidates_Tournament_2026_Qualification_Paths.pdf)

So the question is really on how much he wants to play, which could change.

@DanielTilkin is it his to lose though? the counting starts from August 2025 and he's only 22 points ahead of his chief rival who is a pretty volatile player and could catch up or overtake him

He also needs to play 40 games this calendar year, which he didn't come close to doing last year despite playing the candidates. if he does manage to grind games against his motivation, that might put his rating at risk.

edit: just seen he's at 8 games so only needs 32 games. not sure if he's playing the world cup or grand swiss, but yeah i can see how his qualification is mostly just completely dependent on how motivated he is

@dlin007 well, it's also the average rating across a number of rating lists, which helps

@dlin007 will you add any more options? If so, I’m confused how the “Other” option could resolve YES

@bens "Other" owners automatically get shares in any options added.

@MikeLinksvayer that's not correct at all. This is an unlinked binary market where each option can resolve YES indepedently. The Other option does not split, it was made manually by the market creator and is called "Other (someone else not on this list)"

@bens ah, whoops, thanks for the correction!

@bens discussed it a bit earlier below...still not clear?

Why has Caruana already resolved YES? I see no evidence that he has accepted the invitation!

@bens https://www.fide.com/fabiano-caruana-wins-fide-circuit-2024/#:~:text=Fabiano%20Caruana%20has%20secured%20victory,contenders%20for%20the%20top%20position. no mention of him accepting here, or in any other FIDE communications, AFAICT

@bens @dlin007

@bens Good point. For the 2024 Candidates, I think the official invites didn't go out until January of 2024, or shortly before. Carlsen declined on Jan 13th, 2024.

There's not even a site or terms yet, so it wouldn't make sense for Caruana to "accept" yet.

@bens good catch. it was an oversight by me, no idea how i could undo it now

What happens if someone qualifies, accepts the invitation, but then later cancels?

If someone qualifies, by declines to play in the candidates, that will still resolve to yes I presume?

Edit: nvm I see that you’ve specified they must also accept their invitation to play

Seeing as Naka just confirmed he'll focus on Freestyle Chess in 2025 and only play the World Cup, and skip Grand Swiss i don't see much of a path for him

Added a new option for "Other" to include all other players not on this list, which means the current list is final

@dlin007 FYI to anyone looking, the option is actually called "Someone else not on this list".

@DanielTilkin updated it to clarify things a bit

Having failed to win sole first in the World Rapid, Arjun can't overtake Fabi if he wins sole first in the World Blitz (esp. after Carlsen withdrew)

World Cup top 4s

Pre-registering my take early so I see how it ages: I'm extremely bearish on Abdusattorov and predict he won't come even close to qualifying. He's a 2800-level fighter and practical player but his chess in 2024 has been abjectly mediocre and unimpressive and he's been surviving on bad positions and swindles.

@dlin007 Carlsen disagrees slightly but what does he know

I've bet no on a bunch of people because the total % was much more than 800%, you can check with [...document.querySelectorAll('.whitespace-nowrap.font-bold.text-lg')].map(e => e.textContent).map(e => Number(e.replace('%',''))).reduce((a,b) => a+b, 0)

@Lorenzo ditto. There is a strange plateau when it should be more of a regular curve. I bet those on the plateau