Which chess players will qualify for the 2026 FIDE Candidates tournament?
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16
Ṁ7453
2026
95%
Fabiano Caruana
77%
Arjun Erigaisi
50%
Hikaru Nakamura
41%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
40%
Alireza Firouzja
39%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
33%
Wesley So
30%
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
29%
Wei Yi
26%
Ding Liren
26%
Nihal Sarin
22%
Anish Giri
22%
Vidit Gujrathi
22%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
20%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
20%
Parham Maghsoodloo
20%
Andrey Esipenko
19%
Yu Yangyi
18%
Daniil Dubov
18%
Levon Aronian

Qualification paths - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_Chess_Championship_2026

I tried to include most of the plausible candidates but if your favorite player is missing, mention them in the comments and I'll add them

Resolves to the candidates who qualify AND accept their invitation to the candidates tournament (per FIDE) even if they don't end up playing. If they qualify as an alternate player and accept, that counts too

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bought Ṁ50 NO

I've bet no on a bunch of people because the total % was much more than 800%, you can check with [...document.querySelectorAll('.whitespace-nowrap.font-bold.text-lg')].map(e => e.textContent).map(e => Number(e.replace('%',''))).reduce((a,b) => a+b, 0)

bought Ṁ25 NO

@dlin007 The qualification paths really don't favor Hikaru-he doesn't play enough to qualify by circuit and probably rating, so will need to rank near the top of the grand swiss or world cup.

@Nightsquared But that is 5 spots in Candidates. Abd he has decent chance to qualify by rating, since possibly Caruana and Arjun will be already qualified.

@Weezing They're high variability compared to rating (or circuit if Hikaru played more)-harder for a top player to be top 3 of a 7-round single elimination tournament or a 100-person Swiss than to be in the top 2-3 of rated players not qualified for candidates/championship (i.e. how it used to be).

@Nightsquared it is higher variability, but still he is in better position than almost all of the other players. To play enough to have a good chnace in the circuit will be difficult for anyone.

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