METR releases Claude 4.5 Opus results before Gemini 3 results? | Manifold

METR releases Claude 4.5 Opus results before Gemini 3 results?

10

Ṁ225

Dec 24

61%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Claude 4.5 Opus results and Gemini 3 results are released simultaneously, the market will resolve NO.

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Will this N/A or resolve 50% if both are released simultaneously?

@JaySocrates it would resolve NO

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