Next lab to announce 2025 IMO Gold

Ṁ9311

Aug 22

54%

Harmonic

14%

DeepSeek

13%

Other

ByteDance

Anthropic

xAI

Tencent

1.9%

StepFun

1.2%

Alibaba

Resolves to the next lab to announce it after OpenAI and Google.

Or resolves N/A if no such labs within 1 month

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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13 Comments

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bought Ṁ150 NO

Betting NO on Anthropic. I don't think Anthropic is particularly into side quests like IMO gold.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@EricNeyman good bet

sold Ṁ178 NO

...well that's the fastest I've ever turned a profit :P

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://x.com/amXFreeze/status/1948045336909660278?t=udTk4kHL4j9i_31Y8mhyfw&s=19

sold Ṁ167 YES

@CraigDemel I now see posts from Grok which dispute this: https://x.com/grok/status/1948114917737062897?t=hSjQ2WZHIUqYevkX2kvITQ&s=19

woah!

would you mind sharing where you found this?

@Bayesian Alex Kontorovich twitter

@mathvc oh neat!

bought Ṁ300 YES

bought Ṁ75 YES

just casually and trivially lying in an announcement is extremely odd

bought Ṁ150 NO

@mathvc tbc in litt's question to their post they admitted that they did not in fact reach the same level with just o4-mini-high

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