So far, Germany only has intermediate storage facilities for nuclear waste but no ultimate disposal place (Endlager). The german parliament (Bundestag) intended to make a decision by 2031 but the organization looking for place now targets 2046-2068 for such a decision. Recently, the BASE president asked urgency.
Resolves to the year where the parliament makes a decision.
Close date might be extended.
Also, see this question about how they will decide.
Update 2025-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Decision Inclusion: The market will resolve on the year the Bundestag makes a decision, and that decision is counted even if it involves storing nuclear waste outside of Germany.
Valid Decision: Any decision—whether for an in-country repository or for storage abroad—qualifies for resolving the market.
Update 2025-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fallback Resolution Options:
If no decision is reached (i.e. if the search is effectively stopped without a formal decision), the market may resolve at the max value of 2070 or be marked N/A.
Decision to Stop the Search:
A clear decision by the Bundestag to "stop the search" will count as a valid decision and the market will resolve to the year in which that decision is made.
1,000
3.00@marktwse How will you resolve if they stop looking? (Decide to store the waste outside of Germany, or sell it to some entity, etc.)
@marktwse True. What I meant was: If e.g. the nuclear waste would stop being a problem gradually, we'd sell some parts, reuse others, store some abroad, ... such that the search for a Endlager can just stop. In other words: If we decide not to decide, how will you resolve?
@Primer The options are resolving it the max value of 2070 or to N/A it.
I guess "max value" might attract more participants who would be appalled by a "efforts wasted" N/A. On the other hand, the returns are bad anyways for a question which takes decades to resolve.
The N/A option might be slightly better to "honest" bets, so I favor that if "nothing happens".
If there is a clear decision by the parliament to "stop the search", then I'd accept that as a decision too and resolve it to that year.