Will the film that wins the 2025 Best Picture Golden Globe win the Best Picture Oscar?
Will the film that wins the 2025 Best Picture Golden Globe win the Best Picture Oscar?
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Ṁ259Mar 2
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For the 2025 ceremonies, recognizing 2024 movies.
Past years and how they would’ve Resolved:
2024: YES [Oppenheimer]
2023: NO [The Fabelmans, Globe vs. Everything Everywhere All At Once, Oscar]
2022: NO [The Power of the Dog, Globe vs. CODA, Oscar]
2021: YES [Nomadland]
2020: NO [1917, Globe vs. Parasite, Oscar]
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@asmith Mattyb is off the site, but from the examples in the description it seems pretty clear that it’s referring to just best picture drama, as those are the only movies he mentions.
(Unfortunately he doesn’t extend back to 2019 to confirm this, the last time the comedy globe winner won best picture)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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