When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended) | Manifold

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended)

5

Ṁ1293

2026

9%

Before Dec 16

22%

Before Dec 19

34%

Before Dec 23

49%

Before Dec 30

58%

Before Jan 6, 2026

64%

Before Jan 13

69%

Before Jan 20

73%

Before Jan 27

75%

Before Feb 3

77%

Before Feb 10

All dates are Pacific Time. Based on the current Opus 4.5 run only; if it is reset before defeating Giovanni all answers resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ40 YES

I realized a bug in the mathematical model I was using and the updated version is slightly more optimistic!

Note that the buckets aren't equal here; they get larger at first and then they're a week each.

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Related questions

What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 6th badge (Marsh Badge) from Sabrina?

When with ClaudePlaysPokemon beat Pokemon Red/Blue?

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 5th badge (Soul Badge) from Koga?

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?

What milestones will the (on-screen) Step Count reach in ClaudePlaysPokemon?

Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?

Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?

Will Claude beat Pokemon before my 4-year old?

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