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Deepseek
Joshua
SG
Premium
Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?
10%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
48
Ṁ10k
Zvi Mowshowitz
Plus
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
3%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
36
Ṁ1000
chris (strutheo)
Plus
Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?
YES
107
Ṁ1100
Paul Habermas
Basic
Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)
80%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
33
Ṁ100
Bayesian
Plus
When will DeepSeek release R2?
9%
Before August 2025
Yes
No
Open options
37%
Before September 2025
Yes
No
Open options
58%
Before October 2025
Yes
No
Open options
79%
Before November 2025
Yes
No
Open options
See 7 more answers
96
Ṁ1100
Zvi Mowshowitz
Plus
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
7%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
50
Ṁ1500
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