Will I gain kernel-level privileges on my Switch 2, in 2025?

Ṁ3854

Dec 31

27%

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Will I, personally, gain kernel-level privileges on my Nintendo Switch 2, before the end of 2025?

This includes self-developed exploits, but it would also count if I'm merely running someone else's exploit - but it has to be running on a console that I own. If a public exploit becomes available, it's highly likely that I'd want to test it on my own console.

"kernel-level privileges" means being able to run arbitrary code at EL1. In practice this could just be applying small patches to the retail kernel at run-time.

In the event of YES, I may not be able to present incontrovertible proof (i.e. exploit details may remain private), so you may have to take my word for it. I won't bet in this market.

See also: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-hacke

Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

70% chance. "hacked" means being able to run homebrew games - as an arbitrary concrete example, it must be able to run a Chocolate Doom port https://github.com/lantus/chocolate-doom-nx . Running as javascript or wasm within the web browser doesn't count, it must involve arbitrary native code execution. An unreleased or one-off hack performed by a security researcher doesn't count, it needs to be a publicly available hack, usable by hobbyists. Hardware hacks such as modchips still count. "Flashcarts" that are only capable of playing existing commercial games do not count as homebrew. Disclosure: I am myself a security researcher, who has contributed to the switch homebrew scene in the past. There's a good chance I'll end up working towards hacking the switch 2, too.

(note, the two markets have different resolution criteria and end dates!)

By the way, I pre-ordered the switch 2 and expect to have one at launch day.

Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of this market, 'my Nintendo Switch 2' refers to any Switch 2 console in the creator's possession. This includes any replacements for a previous console.

Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will never resolve NO early, but could plausibly resolve YES early if the creator gains kernel-level privileges before the end of 2025.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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10 days ago you made a somewhat vague answer in response to a query for an update. Yes or no, are you aware of any significant progress towards gaining kernel-level privileges on a Switch 2 other than the progress that is in public?

@MartinSundhaug I am unlikely to answer such questions

Do you foresee any situation where you'd resolve this early?

@MartinSundhaug it will never resolve NO early, but could plausibly resolve YES early.

@retr0id That much seems obvious, since the only way for early absolute certainty in the negative ahead of the end-date would be either a psychic whose abilities are beyond doubt, a time-traveller of similar undeniable quality, or your own mortality followed by someone resolving the market for you (assuming no resurrections), neither of which seems particularly likely.

I guess what I'm asking more specifically is "in which situations do you foresee yourself resolving the market in the positive early?"

@MartinSundhaug uhhhhhh if the resolution criteria are met? I don't really understand the question lol

bought Ṁ25 YES

with love, as someone who’s interacted with you on bsky (under another handle), you terrify me 🦊🧡 lfg

@retr0id how about an update?

@MRME that's the purpose of this market

bought Ṁ25 YES from 16% to 18%

@retr0id That's a very particular statement

For avoidance of doubt, "my Nintendo Switch 2" refers to any switch 2 in my possession. I bricked my first one but have ordered a second.

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://bsky.app/profile/retr0.id/post/3lqtwrndzf22w

And off we go!

bought Ṁ250 NO

Are you comfortable with soldering?

@Robincvgr yes, even BGA rework (I've done modchip installs on a handful of switch lites)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 31% to 34%

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