If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year? | Manifold

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Plus

11

Ṁ918

2124

71%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event

For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.

This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs. The word "tomorrow" should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.

See also: /singer/if-another-carrington-event-occurre-taf44snmty

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Natural Disasters

#Existential Risk

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

I'll admit I can't add much of predictive value at the moment, but I hugely appreciate you making so many useful markets about this super important issue, and within the next year or so as part of my studies I expect to read up a bunch on this topic and return with actually useful credences lol

Related questions

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030?

Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Will Manifold still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Related questions

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

Will Manifold still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules