By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?
By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?
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Nov 23, 2:43pm: By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) walk on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth? → By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?

#Space
#Artemis program
#Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing
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predictedNO 1y

<2025:

Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024NO‌

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025?NO‌

<2026:

Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?3%‌

Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?2%‌

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?2%‌

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?4%‌

Later:

Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?5%‌

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?15%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?45%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?74%‌

predictedNO 2y

This question and https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land are essentially the same question IMO, since neither SpaceX nor any other group has any intention of launching humans in the 2024 mars launch window (they would first need to send an unmanned Starship as a test and to pre-position supplies), and the next mars launch window is not until mid-2026. And nobody is planning to send humans to phobos or etc. So, both questions come down to whether NASA (or China or etc) can pull off a moon landing by 2025.

2y

Doubtful IMO: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/amp/

2y

basically will artemis 3 get delayed? Chance of china e.g. accomplishing this goal is negligible

predictedNO 2y

@Isaac228c should approximate this: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/

2y

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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