Will Mongolia be invaded by Russia or China before 2050?
Will Mongolia be invaded by Russia or China before 2050?
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Mongolia is currently landlocked by both nations. Resolves true if Russia or China (or their successor states) send troops into Mongolia, or if Mongolia agrees to be annexed by at least one of these before 2050.
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@AlexanderTurok As of me posing the question, Mongolia doesn’t have a defensive alliance with either country. Should that change, will only resolve to true if hostile troops enter the country.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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How do I win cash prizes?
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