By 2050, will any territory that was administered by Russia in 2013 be administered by China instead?
Plus
16
Ṁ4032049
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Slightly awkward phrasing chosen to eliminate resolutions related to Ukraine (however unlikely).
How the shift in administration takes place is beyond the purview of this question.
Question will resolve before 2050 if China demonstrates sustained (one year) administrative control of relevant territory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Something slightly interesting:
Related questions
Related questions
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
36% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
48% chance
Will Mongolia be invaded by Russia or China before 2050?
29% chance
Will China annex any portion of Russia/Siberia by 2035?
20% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
49% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
3% chance
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
40% chance
Will China still be controlled by the CCP in 2050?
39% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
35% chance