Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence? | Manifold

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

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One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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consider making this a poll instead

https://manifold.markets/Jono3h/is-there-any-point-in-having-manifo?r=Sm9ubzNo

This question is more likely to pay out in the world's where NO is likely than the world's where YES is likely.

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