How long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
How long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
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26
Ṁ14452034
35%
1-3 years
22%
3-6 years
13%
7-10 years
30%
Over 10 years
OpenAI and others are trying to develop one. AGI has been defined as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable tasks.
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@MoritzBrodel lol no worries! When do you think I should set the target for? I only did 10 years because of the options :)
@MoritzBrodel I’m not 100% sure how it works, I think you get paid out when this resolves. So either a) we’ll see an AGI within 10 years and it resolves, or b) 10 years lapses and it’s a NO, worst case is 10 years, best case is unknown
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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