How many months will elapse between general availability of Level 5 self driving and the first strong AGI? | Manifold

How many months will elapse between general availability of Level 5 self driving and the first strong AGI?

Basic

2

Ṁ40

2100

62%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves PROB to the number of months. YES if >100, NO if <0

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#Self-Driving Vehicles

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1,000

and

3.00

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I suppose I need to precisely define my terms here

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Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) be required for Level 5 Self-Driving Cars?

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?

By when will we have AGI?

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

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