What will be true of OpenAI's new compute-intensive offerings? [Add Answers]
23
Ṁ6244
Dec 31
55%
Includes an upgraded computer use agent
42%
One prompt can cost >$10 for a user
35%
One scores >=40% on FrontierMath
33%
At least one makes >=2/3 of Manifold poll voters "very surprised" by its abilities
31%
At least one will be based on the agent that scored Gold on IMO
25%
One prompt can cost >$100 for a user
Resolved
YES
At least one is available by the end of October
Resolved
YES
At least one is a new model for generating videos

To count as part of this wave of "compute-intensive offerings", I will wait until the next obviously-power-hungry service comes out, and then start a metaphorical timer for about a month, which resets whenever a new obviously-power-hungry service comes out. When the timer hits 0, I will close the market. I won't be following this timer strictly, I will be resolving subjectively. So small delays would not make this market close, but large delays could.

I will use my best judgment here, but I want to do this subjectively.

  • Update 2025-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - No credit for surprise at lack of ability: Outcomes/answers based on "being surprised by lack of ability" will not be considered in resolution.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

@JoshYou resolve yes gpt5.2 high got 40.34% https://epoch.ai/frontiermath

bought Ṁ30 YES

@prismatic is that a compute-intensive offering 🤔

@Bayesian i mean its called high and thinking imo

its thats not compute intensive then idk what is

its thats not compute intensive then idk what is

@prismatic some parallel test time compute setup like gpt 5.2 pro

tbc I don't know whether MingCat counts gpt-5.2 high as a high compute offering or not, but personally i'd lean against it, ig it's ambiguous to me

@prismatic not my market but I agree with Bayesian that GPT-5.2 high wouldn't count

@JoshYou Like I think Sam's tweet just refers to Pulse and Sora. Maybe some other stuff that got delayed/cancelled? Atlas also came out in the relevant time period but doesn't quite fit.

@MingCat Sora 2 was released over 2 months ago, this should resolve and not count GPT-5.2 imo.

Sora 2 Pro is $0.5/s, in app they generate at 15 seconds long, so that would be $7.50 a prompt. Anyone know if 15 is the cap, or with the API, it'd be possible to request a longer video?

@MingCat GPT-5 Pro is now available in the API as well. Given these numbers, looks like you can technically hit $32.64 on one prompt, but should this count as a new offering? It's just been made available in the API, right?

@Luxeed yeah, Sora 2 Pro is clearly a compute-intensive model.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Do we think pulse is one of them? It seems potentially compute heavy if it’s doing essentially multiple calls to the “deep research” mode for everyone signed up every day indefinitely?

@JasonQ imo the pulse features appear to be part of (and perhaps all of?) what the tweet was referring to. c.f. https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/25/openai-launches-chatgpt-pulse-to-proactively-write-you-morning-briefs/

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said earlier this week that some of ChatGPT’s new “compute-intensive” products would be limited to the company’s most expensive subscription plan — which is the case for Pulse.

[…]

The company says it would like to launch Pulse to all ChatGPT users in the future, with Plus subscribers to get access soon, but it first needs to make the product more efficient.

[…]

It remains to be seen if Pulse is worth the computational power it requires to work. Fry [OpenAI Product Lead] says the service can “vary tremendously” in how much computing power it spends on a given task — for some projects, it’s fairly efficient, but others may require searching the web and synthesizing lots of documents.

@MingCat to clarify, being surprised by lack of ability does not count for this

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