Will Yoon Suk Yeol declare martial law again? (2024)
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https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/12/113_387833.html

this does not make sense to me but it also made very little sense the first time so here's a market

resolves jan 1 2025, closes earlier

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If Yoon instigated martial law to avoid arrest wouldn't it make it more likely he'll try again now that even the PPP have turned on him?

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-ruling-party-leader-says-president-ordered-arrest-prominent-2024-12-06/

His original plan was supposedly to arrest certain politicians after all to prevent such a vote... Against this theory would be the idea that he believes no longer has any chance of a coup suceeding and would rather try to avoid a harsher sentence that a second coup would bring?

@parhizj I feel like there are more obvious solutions like "try to flee the country" but it's not like rational thinking was involved in getting into this situation in the first place

@SaviorofPlant Trying to thinking more generally... attempting a coup rather than fleeing suggests dual goals of prioritizing power and avoiding accountability; if you were rational in such a case wouldn't you have had a plan in place in advance to flee the country on the chance your coup failed? Maybe it is the case that the institutions don't have the ability to stop him from fleeing in any scenario up until much later in time, in which case it makes sense he has not resigned nor fled yet if he is still hoping for a coup...

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